A video on Bayesian Reasoning made transparent
Bayesian Reasoning has been considered as riddled with difficulties for adults, including experts. The difficulties, as cognitive psychologists have pointed out, are mainly due to the information representation formats. Kolmogorov probabilities are abstract and opaque. In this video Gerd Gigerenzer appears promoting natural frequencies for making Bayesian inferences smoothly and grasping the role of base rates for estimating posteriors.